SlipWise AI
DraftKings · 4 legs · Goal: Moderate

Parlay Analysis Results

Example: Astros same-game offensive stack

Risk Level

How risky is this?
Extreme
Implied ~4.09% to hit · 4 legs · +2342

Goal Fit

Does this match Moderate?
56 / 100
Decent Fit

Payout Fairness

Does the payout look fair?
Looks low
Book $110.00 vs Fair $585.50 · -81.2%

Bankroll Warning

Aggressive — 5.0% of your bankroll. Most disciplined bettors stay under 3%.

Stake
$25.00
Total odds
+2342
24.42x decimal
Expected profit
$585.50
from entered odds
Expected total return
$610.50
book: $110.00

Correlation Insight

Likely Positive CorrelationHigh confidenceSeveral legs appear to support the same offensive game script.

When multiple hitters from the same team are tied to RBIs, runs, hits, total bases, or scoring, those outcomes may move together. A strong offensive game for that team can help several of those legs hit at once, so the sportsbook may adjust the same-game parlay payout compared to a standard independent-leg estimate.

Trust this comparison? The lower payout may be due to same-game correlation. Your legs appear connected, so the sportsbook may be reducing the payout compared to a standard independent-leg parlay estimate.

  • Game total Over stacked with offensive Over(s) in the same game.
  • Multiple hitter Overs (3) tied to the same team/game.
  • Multiple same-team MLB offensive Overs (RBIs/runs/hits/bases/HR).
  • Same-team MLB offensive Over paired with a total Over.
Fair payout check
Sportsbook payout
$110.00
what your book is paying
Fair payout (math)
$585.50
what the odds say it should be
Edge−$475.50(-81.2%)

Verdict: Below fair value — the book is taking about 81.2% extra juice on this slip.

Comparing profit / to-win
Why the payout may be different

The lower payout may be due to same-game correlation. Your legs appear connected — for example, multiple hitters from the same team tied to RBIs, runs, hits, or total bases — so the sportsbook may be reducing the payout compared to a standard independent-leg parlay estimate.

Why doesn't this match my sportsbook?

SlipWise AI's expected payout uses standard parlay math. Same-game parlays can be priced differently because the legs may be connected. For example, game over + several player overs may pay less than expected because those outcomes support the same game script. On the other hand, conflicting legs may create unusual pricing or be blocked by the sportsbook. Very large gaps (above ~35%) are usually a data entry issue, not correlation.

What this means

You selected Moderate. This 4-leg slip has a combined implied probability of ~4.09% (about 1 in 24) and we rate it Extreme risk. For a Moderate goal this is a stretch. Fewer legs or shorter prices would tighten the fit. Goal Fit: 56/100 (Decent Fit).

Legs
#1Astros vs. Rangers — Game total Over 8.5
Implied 52.4% · implied ~52.4% to hit
-110
#2Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 RBIs
Implied 48.8% · implied ~48.8% to hit
+105
#3Jose Altuve Over 0.5 RBIs
Implied 41.7% · implied ~41.7% to hit
+140
#4Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total BasesWeakest leg
Implied 38.5% · implied ~38.5% to hit
+160

Weakest Leg

Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases — implied ~38.5% to hit.

SlipWise AI is for entertainment and analytics only. We do not tell you to place this bet. Implied probability and fair-payout checks are estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Play smart.
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